Intrepid Potash (IPI:NYSE) — FY19 Q2 Update

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4283797-intrepid-potash-fy19-q2-update

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Introduction

Intrepid Potash (IPI) reported results for Q2’19 on Tuesday morning. While headline results were somewhat mixed, investors’ reaction to the news was decidedly negative, taking shares down almost 10% to around $3.25. While the cause for concern is not entirely wrong, it does feel misguided, as Intrepid’s story is one that remains both highly misunderstood and of enormous potential. Realizing that potential is never a guarantee, but there are reasons to feel confident in the company’s intrinsic value materializing, as its long-term narrative has only just begun to take hold. Opportunities of this magnitude rarely come along and it is why Intrepid remains one of the largest positions in Bumbershoot Holdings LP, with the fund beneficially controlling more than 250k+ shares. …

Intrepid Potash (IPI:NYSE) — FY19 Q1 Update & Financial Model

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4261578-intrepid-potash-fy19-q1-update-financial-model

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Introduction

Intrepid Potash (IPI) reported results for FY’19 Q1 on May-7th and I thought it might be useful to offer investors a quick update on performance. So, I’m putting on my old “sell-side hat” to write a brief “companion piece” to Betting on Blue! – a lengthy, in-depth report about the company’s opportunity in the Permian Basin, published in February…

Intrepid Potash (IPI:NYSE) — Betting On Blue!

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Summary

In summary, it appears to me that shares of Intrepid Potash are massively undervalued due to a disconnect in fundamentals. The issues driving that opportunity are complex, though; and have not yet been bridged by analysts and investors.

First there was the issue of distress—the Bet on Bob— which at this point is over. Finished. Complete. Dunzo! But for some reason, investors still don’t seem to fully believe it. The company’s core potash business is cash flow generative at current price levels and the balance sheet is nearly back to a net cash position. Intrepid is a company that will survive and compound capitallong into the future.

Next up was the issue of overcapacity—the Bet on Joc—which was depressing potash prices around the world. The sector pursued a price over volume strategy which has led to price stabilization and recovery. Agricultural commodity companies are trading near 52-week highs on expectations of continued momentum, yet Intrepid is not fully participating due to the drag from Trio and given misperception of its MOP production cash costs (GAAP vs. non-GAAP). While this makes sense, it has resulted in Intrepid trading at a significant discount to its fair value of $1b+, which I expect it to reach sooner rather than later.

And now there is the issue of water—the Bet on Blue—which has helped reignite excitement among investors, but has not yet fully materialized. Investors are going to be reading about the Permian basin for the next 50 years; and water may be the single, largest unresolved question among major producers in the region. There have been billions of dollars invested and billions more already allocated to ensure decades of production that may ultimately set the “marginal barrel” to control the entire industry. Demand for water could be staggering and Intrepid will be monetizing the value of water right assets for years to come. Whether this helps to “protect downside” or whether it provides a meaningful avenue for growth remains uncertain. But cash flow is real and on a discounted basis it is likely worth more than the entire current enterprise value of the company.

Something doesn’t add up, but it might just be that IPI is being priced far too low. This is the beauty of small-cap. Ephemeral moments of inefficiency that can lead to outsize returns. I expect 200-300%+ upside over the next few years, because by the time it becomes obvious it will be far too late.

That usually makes for a very good bet.

Viking Therapeutics (VKTX:NGS) — Hallmark Moment

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Moves of Sympathy…

On the final day of May, Viking Therapeutics’s (VKTX) stock increased by 100% in a single session. Investors were quick to point out, though, that the move was just “in sympathy” to another company. Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) had released important biopsy/histological data from a 36-week assessment of patients dosed with MGL-3196 as part of a Phase II trial for the compound; and Viking shareholders were happy to just go along for the ride, piggy-backing off of the results.

Yes, indeed. Viking hadn’t even needed to say a word that day in order to see a doubling in its share price! There is a natural inclination to view this type of move as “too fast, too soon.” That sentiment makes sense on the surface, and I wouldn’t fault anyone for assuming the stock must come back to earth.

But it is not for nothing that the move occurred. It was no accident.

Shares of Viking traded materially higher based on a very specific rationale – that the data which Madrigal had just released was in a word, phenomenal. The results provide significant validation to the THR-ß agonist class as a key mechanism of action in the potential treatment of NASH. That is BIG news; and in fact, Madrigal’s own shares were higher by some 200% in the past week, prior to placing a secondary offering at $305/share.

So, the move “in sympathy” makes a lot more sense when put into context of investors’ recognition that Viking’s second lead molecular candidate, VK2809, works in much the same way as MGL-3196. Both share the same mechanism of action in targeting NASH.

This is why in a lengthy write-up published late last year and titled, Welcome To The Glorious House of Gains, I had described VK2809 as follows:

VK2809 for example is the molecule most investors are probably most focused on. The drug has shown some extremely promising results in vivo for statistically significant reductions in expression of multiple genes associated with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) [and] to the extent it can demonstrate similar effect in humans […] it could prove extremely valuable, particularly given how “hot” an area NASH has become from an investment perspective over the past 1-2 years.

So, before being quick to dismiss – perhaps it is better to understand…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Viking Therapeutics (VKTX:NGS) — Hallmark Moment

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4181335-viking-therapeutics-hallmark-moment

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Moves of Sympathy…

On the final day of May, Viking Therapeutics’s (VKTX) stock increased by 100% in a single session. Investors were quick to point out, though, that the move was just “in sympathy” to another company. Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) had released important biopsy/histological data from a 36-week assessment of patients dosed with MGL-3196 as part of a Phase II trial for the compound; and Viking shareholders were happy to just go along for the ride, piggy-backing off of the results.

Yes, indeed. Viking hadn’t even needed to say a word that day in order to see a doubling in its share price! There is a natural inclination to view this type of move as “too fast, too soon.” That sentiment makes sense on the surface, and I wouldn’t fault anyone for assuming the stock must come back to earth.

But it is not for nothing that the move occurred. It was no accident.

Shares of Viking traded materially higher based on a very specific rationale – that the data which Madrigal had just released was in a word, phenomenal. The results provide significant validation to the THR-ß agonist class as a key mechanism of action in the potential treatment of NASH. That is BIG news; and in fact, Madrigal’s own shares were higher by some 200% in the past week, prior to placing a secondary offering at $305/share.

So, the move “in sympathy” makes a lot more sense when put into context of investors’ recognition that Viking’s second lead molecular candidate, VK2809, works in much the same way as MGL-3196. Both share the same mechanism of action in targeting NASH.

This is why in a lengthy write-up published late last year and titled, Welcome To The Glorious House of Gains, I had described VK2809 as follows:

VK2809 for example is the molecule most investors are probably most focused on. The drug has shown some extremely promising results in vivo for statistically significant reductions in expression of multiple genes associated with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NYSEARCA:NASH) [and] to the extent it can demonstrate similar effect in humans […] it could prove extremely valuable, particularly given how “hot” an area NASH has become from an investment perspective over the past 1-2 years.

So, before being quick to dismiss – perhaps it is better to understand…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Viking Therapeutics (VKTX:NGS) — Buy The Rumor, Buy The News

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4128751-viking-therapeutics-buy-rumor-buy-news

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Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) announced top-line results for its Phase II trial of VK5211 on Nov-28th. Headline data was positive with the study achieving its primary endpoint of demonstrating statistically significant, dose-dependent increases in lean body mass (less head) in all dosage arms, and with zero drug-related serious adverse events (SAEs) being reported.

VK5211 is a powerful selective androgen receptor modulator (SARM) that is being positioned clinically as a potential best-in-class therapy for improving muscle and bone growth. The trial was based around the drug’s initial target indication of elderly patients recovering from a hip fracture – a large, underserved market in which there are approx. 300k hospitalizations per year in the U.S. alone. The trial launched in late 2015 and, after various delays in recruiting patients, was finally completed in summer 2017. The 108-person study was designed to assess increases in lean body mass and was divided into three treatment arms: 0.5mg, 1.0mg, and 2.0mg, as well as a placebo group…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Viking Therapeutics (VKTX:NGS) — FY’17 Q3 Quarterly Update

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4122928-viking-therapeutics-fy17-q3-quarterly-update

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Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) reported Q3’17 results on Nov-8th after market-hours. Headline results showed a slight earnings “miss” in the quarter as a result of a non-cash charge, however this remains essentially irrelevant in context of both the near-term and long-term investment thesis as the company awaits the release of top-line data from its phase II trial on molecule VK5211. Shares have essentially traded flat since the quarterly release in the $2.20 range; and while this is down materially from the $3+ price level achieved in mid-October, is still higher by ~100% from the summer months…

 

 

 

 

 

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Viking Therapeutics (VKTX:NGS) — Welcome To The Glorious House of Gains

Viking Therapeutics: Welcome to the Glorious House of Gains

  • Viking Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biotech company that is focused on developing novel therapies to various acute and chronic metabolic and endocrine disorders
  • A spin-off of Ligand Pharmaceuticals in 2015, Viking maintains a pipeline of four molecular candidates held under an exclusive Master License Agreement. Clinical studies target a broad range of indications to large, underserved markets.
  • Lead candidate VK5211 is a potent Selective Androgen Receptor Modulator (SARM). Extensive history of efficacy from early clinical trials in animals/humans, as well as testimonials from (illegal) recreational usage as a black-market PED by athletes/bodybuilders.
  • Currently conducting a Phase II trial for post-operative, hip fracture rehabilitation support in elderly patients. Top-line data expected Q4’17; and recently held panel discussion to outline regulatory steps towards commercialization of $1b+ addressable market.
  • With funding secure through mid-2018, Viking has line-of-sight on multiple upcoming catalysts over the course of the next 6-12 months that could position the stock to have significant potential upside.  

Introduction

One of the greatest internet personalities (celebrities?) is the indomitable RobertFrank615.

For the uninitiated, he is a real-life, pumped-up, Jersey Shore gym rat who is essentially playing a caricature of himself. Loaded with an army of nearly 650k followers, he creates off-kilter, motivational videos that he posts to Instagram and YouTube.

Put simply, his character’s goal in life is to make huge “gainz” at the gym in order to get a “sick pump” for the weekend to then be able to pick up women. In real life (“IRL”) though, he co-stars in many of the short videos with his fiancée (yes, it’s adorable) and just seems to be a genuine guy that happens to be jacked as all heck and loves to work out.

He’ll dance to forget the haters. He absolutely despises leg day; and he often comes up with highly entertaining creative expressions such as International Chest Day (i.e. Mon-Thurs) or my favorite, the Glorious House of Gains (i.e. the gym).

He also happens to be the perfect pop-culture reference for an investment in Viking Therapeutics (VKTX:NGS) for two reasons:

  1. Viking’s lead candidate—a molecule known as VK5211–is a potent SARM that has been used as a black-market performance enhancement drug (PED) by athletes and bodybuilders. It is now being positioned clinically as a potential best-in-class treatment for a wide assortment of acute and chronic muscle and bone loss.
  1. It’s initial area of exploration—rehabilitation support to post-operative elderly patients that suffered a hip fracture—is currently engaged in a Phase II trial, with top-line data expected to be released in Q4’17. With funding secure through mid-2018, to the extent its successful it should propel the stock forward as a major proof of concept towards commercialization.

Said another way, investors in Viking Therapeutics may be positioning—literally and figuratively—to enter into the GLORIOUS HOUSE OF GAINS on the back of positive top-line data from the VK-5211’s Phase II trial results due out later this year.

But I may be getting ahead of myself…

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