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Viking Therapeutics (VKTX:NGS) — Another Year In Review

~ bumbershootholdings ~ Leave a comment

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4368444-viking-therapeutics-another-year-in-review

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Summary

To finish off, it might be helpful just to keep a bit of perspective.

As frustrating as the past 12+ months have been, Viking’s shares are still up by 500%+ from a starting point of ~$1.20/share back in mid-2017. So, while it may not feel like it every day – the stock is still a big winner. Viking’s story is also a long way from being over as many more questions will need to get answered and new ones undoubtedly arise over time. That is the nature of the game. But at a high level, nothing has really changed all that much in terms of its progress. The story is still as promising as ever – it’s just waiting on time to prove that from a statistical significance perspective. And that is why I still believe Viking to be my best chance at capturing the elusive “100x bagger” to a valuation of $3.5b from a market cap perspective.

In the meantime, the company is properly funded to reach multiple data readouts; and that has always been the biggest risk at this stage in the story. To go back to my initial wording:

It would be wrong to minimize the “in-between” period since it is both hugely important & unanalyzable in its effect on residual equity value for current shareholders. The only known piece in the equation is that the higher Viking’s stock price is over the next 6-12 months, the more flexibility it will afford it going forward; and the better chance it has to capture a greater percentage of that terminal value for owners without dilution.

That has been the case and still rings as true as ever. I’m excited to see where it goes from here.

Viking Therapeutics (VKTX:NGS) — Hallmark Moment

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Full Report

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Moves of Sympathy…

On the final day of May, Viking Therapeutics’s (VKTX) stock increased by 100% in a single session. Investors were quick to point out, though, that the move was just “in sympathy” to another company. Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) had released important biopsy/histological data from a 36-week assessment of patients dosed with MGL-3196 as part of a Phase II trial for the compound; and Viking shareholders were happy to just go along for the ride, piggy-backing off of the results.

Yes, indeed. Viking hadn’t even needed to say a word that day in order to see a doubling in its share price! There is a natural inclination to view this type of move as “too fast, too soon.” That sentiment makes sense on the surface, and I wouldn’t fault anyone for assuming the stock must come back to earth.

But it is not for nothing that the move occurred. It was no accident.

Shares of Viking traded materially higher based on a very specific rationale – that the data which Madrigal had just released was in a word, phenomenal. The results provide significant validation to the THR-ß agonist class as a key mechanism of action in the potential treatment of NASH. That is BIG news; and in fact, Madrigal’s own shares were higher by some 200% in the past week, prior to placing a secondary offering at $305/share.

So, the move “in sympathy” makes a lot more sense when put into context of investors’ recognition that Viking’s second lead molecular candidate, VK2809, works in much the same way as MGL-3196. Both share the same mechanism of action in targeting NASH.

This is why in a lengthy write-up published late last year and titled, Welcome To The Glorious House of Gains, I had described VK2809 as follows:

VK2809 for example is the molecule most investors are probably most focused on. The drug has shown some extremely promising results in vivo for statistically significant reductions in expression of multiple genes associated with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) [and] to the extent it can demonstrate similar effect in humans […] it could prove extremely valuable, particularly given how “hot” an area NASH has become from an investment perspective over the past 1-2 years.

So, before being quick to dismiss – perhaps it is better to understand…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Viking Therapeutics (VKTX:NGS) — Hallmark Moment

~ bumbershootholdings ~ Leave a comment

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4181335-viking-therapeutics-hallmark-moment

— — — — —

Moves of Sympathy…

On the final day of May, Viking Therapeutics’s (VKTX) stock increased by 100% in a single session. Investors were quick to point out, though, that the move was just “in sympathy” to another company. Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) had released important biopsy/histological data from a 36-week assessment of patients dosed with MGL-3196 as part of a Phase II trial for the compound; and Viking shareholders were happy to just go along for the ride, piggy-backing off of the results.

Yes, indeed. Viking hadn’t even needed to say a word that day in order to see a doubling in its share price! There is a natural inclination to view this type of move as “too fast, too soon.” That sentiment makes sense on the surface, and I wouldn’t fault anyone for assuming the stock must come back to earth.

But it is not for nothing that the move occurred. It was no accident.

Shares of Viking traded materially higher based on a very specific rationale – that the data which Madrigal had just released was in a word, phenomenal. The results provide significant validation to the THR-ß agonist class as a key mechanism of action in the potential treatment of NASH. That is BIG news; and in fact, Madrigal’s own shares were higher by some 200% in the past week, prior to placing a secondary offering at $305/share.

So, the move “in sympathy” makes a lot more sense when put into context of investors’ recognition that Viking’s second lead molecular candidate, VK2809, works in much the same way as MGL-3196. Both share the same mechanism of action in targeting NASH.

This is why in a lengthy write-up published late last year and titled, Welcome To The Glorious House of Gains, I had described VK2809 as follows:

VK2809 for example is the molecule most investors are probably most focused on. The drug has shown some extremely promising results in vivo for statistically significant reductions in expression of multiple genes associated with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NYSEARCA:NASH) [and] to the extent it can demonstrate similar effect in humans […] it could prove extremely valuable, particularly given how “hot” an area NASH has become from an investment perspective over the past 1-2 years.

So, before being quick to dismiss – perhaps it is better to understand…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Viking Therapeutics (VKTX:NGS) — Buy The Rumor, Buy The News

~ bumbershootholdings ~ Leave a comment

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4128751-viking-therapeutics-buy-rumor-buy-news

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Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) announced top-line results for its Phase II trial of VK5211 on Nov-28th. Headline data was positive with the study achieving its primary endpoint of demonstrating statistically significant, dose-dependent increases in lean body mass (less head) in all dosage arms, and with zero drug-related serious adverse events (SAEs) being reported.

VK5211 is a powerful selective androgen receptor modulator (SARM) that is being positioned clinically as a potential best-in-class therapy for improving muscle and bone growth. The trial was based around the drug’s initial target indication of elderly patients recovering from a hip fracture – a large, underserved market in which there are approx. 300k hospitalizations per year in the U.S. alone. The trial launched in late 2015 and, after various delays in recruiting patients, was finally completed in summer 2017. The 108-person study was designed to assess increases in lean body mass and was divided into three treatment arms: 0.5mg, 1.0mg, and 2.0mg, as well as a placebo group…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Viking Therapeutics (VKTX:NGS) — FY’17 Q3 Quarterly Update

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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4122928-viking-therapeutics-fy17-q3-quarterly-update

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Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) reported Q3’17 results on Nov-8th after market-hours. Headline results showed a slight earnings “miss” in the quarter as a result of a non-cash charge, however this remains essentially irrelevant in context of both the near-term and long-term investment thesis as the company awaits the release of top-line data from its phase II trial on molecule VK5211. Shares have essentially traded flat since the quarterly release in the $2.20 range; and while this is down materially from the $3+ price level achieved in mid-October, is still higher by ~100% from the summer months…

 

 

 

 

 

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Viking Therapeutics (VKTX:NGS) — Welcome To The Glorious House of Gains

~ bumbershootholdings ~ 1 Comment

Viking Therapeutics: Welcome to the Glorious House of Gains

  • Viking Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biotech company that is focused on developing novel therapies to various acute and chronic metabolic and endocrine disorders
  • A spin-off of Ligand Pharmaceuticals in 2015, Viking maintains a pipeline of four molecular candidates held under an exclusive Master License Agreement. Clinical studies target a broad range of indications to large, underserved markets.
  • Lead candidate VK5211 is a potent Selective Androgen Receptor Modulator (SARM). Extensive history of efficacy from early clinical trials in animals/humans, as well as testimonials from (illegal) recreational usage as a black-market PED by athletes/bodybuilders.
  • Currently conducting a Phase II trial for post-operative, hip fracture rehabilitation support in elderly patients. Top-line data expected Q4’17; and recently held panel discussion to outline regulatory steps towards commercialization of $1b+ addressable market.
  • With funding secure through mid-2018, Viking has line-of-sight on multiple upcoming catalysts over the course of the next 6-12 months that could position the stock to have significant potential upside.  

Introduction

One of the greatest internet personalities (celebrities?) is the indomitable RobertFrank615.

For the uninitiated, he is a real-life, pumped-up, Jersey Shore gym rat who is essentially playing a caricature of himself. Loaded with an army of nearly 650k followers, he creates off-kilter, motivational videos that he posts to Instagram and YouTube.

Put simply, his character’s goal in life is to make huge “gainz” at the gym in order to get a “sick pump” for the weekend to then be able to pick up women. In real life (“IRL”) though, he co-stars in many of the short videos with his fiancée (yes, it’s adorable) and just seems to be a genuine guy that happens to be jacked as all heck and loves to work out.

He’ll dance to forget the haters. He absolutely despises leg day; and he often comes up with highly entertaining creative expressions such as International Chest Day (i.e. Mon-Thurs) or my favorite, the Glorious House of Gains (i.e. the gym).

He also happens to be the perfect pop-culture reference for an investment in Viking Therapeutics (VKTX:NGS) for two reasons:

  1. Viking’s lead candidate—a molecule known as VK5211–is a potent SARM that has been used as a black-market performance enhancement drug (PED) by athletes and bodybuilders. It is now being positioned clinically as a potential best-in-class treatment for a wide assortment of acute and chronic muscle and bone loss.
  1. It’s initial area of exploration—rehabilitation support to post-operative elderly patients that suffered a hip fracture—is currently engaged in a Phase II trial, with top-line data expected to be released in Q4’17. With funding secure through mid-2018, to the extent its successful it should propel the stock forward as a major proof of concept towards commercialization.

Said another way, investors in Viking Therapeutics may be positioning—literally and figuratively—to enter into the GLORIOUS HOUSE OF GAINS on the back of positive top-line data from the VK-5211’s Phase II trial results due out later this year.

But I may be getting ahead of myself…

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Full Report

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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